In fact, research shows that premortems (which are also called prospective hindsight) can increase our ability to identify future outcome causes by 30%. Once you address this worst-case scenario, you can take steps to prevent it - and make a better decision in the first place. Now, explore every possible reason for the failure. The project you chose to tackle was a crash-and-burn disaster. A premortem in a business setting comes at the beginning of a project rather than the end, so that the project can be improved rather than autopsied. Everyone benefits except, of course, the patient. To expand on this technique, psychologist Gary Klein has studied a twist he calls the “premortem.” In a classic Harvard Business Review story, Klein explains why a premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem.Ī postmortem in a medical setting allows health professionals and the family to learn what caused a patient’s death. What’s the very best future you can imagine? The worst? And how would you feel if that disastrous scenario became reality? Explore future scenariosĬonsidering the best- and worst-case scenarios is a common way to make tough choices. You can also use this technique for smaller, less personal decisions, like which project or feature to tackle next. If you see the numbers but still feel pulled in the opposite direction, it’s worth doing some deeper exploration. Often, confronting a “logical” number (which was actually weighted with emotions) can illuminate subconscious feelings. Compare the final values and see how you feel about the outcome. You can also make a separate pro and con list for staying where you are. Leaving a job you love could score 0.8, for example, if your career is an essential part of your life.Īdd up each side, multiply by 100, and see whether the pro or con side wins out. If you listed “near the mountains” as another pro, but you’re more of a culture hound than an alpine hiker, then it might only rate 0.2 or 0.3.ĭo the same for the “con” side. For example, if being closer to your family is a “pro” that’s extremely high on your list, you might score it at 0.9 or 0.95. Now, here’s where science has added a helpful twist.Īssign every list entry a number from 0 to 1, based on your personal values. Will you relocate to another city? Pull out a piece of paper and write a classic pros and cons list for the move. Here are six methods that I rely on when I’m losing sleep over a challenging decision. In the 12 years since I started Jotform, my team and I have faced a lot of tricky choices, and I’ve tried many different decision-making techniques. But the research shows that you can get better at making them. There is no foolproof algorithm for life’s difficult choices. They’re intended to help you see the current situation from new perspectives, to imagine new possibilities, to weigh your options with more sophistication. “They are prompts, hacks, nudges,” says Heinrich. Unfortunately, none of these tools can actually make the decision for you. The good news? Science is continually discovering new and better ways to make tough decisions.Īs Lea Heinrich writes in the New York Times, “over the past few decades, a growing multidisciplinary field of research - spanning areas as diverse as cognitive science, management theory and literary studies - have given us a set of tools that we can use to make better choices.” If you’re running a business, there are even more decisions to make - and many are critical to the health of your company. You sense that the choice could significantly affect your happiness, freedom, pride, or personal fulfillment. But some choices feel momentous.Īn internal tug-of-war indicates that something big is at stake. Most decisions are actually micro-choices, like clicking a link or taking a sip of coffee. If you do the math (and account for seven hours of sleep), that’s about 2,000 decisions every hour - or one choice every two seconds. The typical adult makes 35,000 decisions each day.
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